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<text id=89TT0963>
<link 93TO0069>
<link 91TT2015>
<link 90TT0658>
<title>
Apr. 10, 1989: A Long, Mighty Struggle
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1989
Apr. 10, 1989 The New USSR
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
THE UNION, Page 48
A LONG, MIGHTY STRUGGLE
</hdr>
<body>
<p>A historic--and surprising--election is the latest
indication that, for all his troubles, Gorbachev's revolution is
transforming his nation
</p>
<p>By Walter Isaacson
</p>
<p> Upon returning to Moscow in 1944 after a seven-year
absence, the American diplomat George Kennan was struck by the
enigma of an empire both yearning for its rightful place in the
modern world and clinging to the enfeebling insularity of its
past. "The Anglo-Saxon instinct is to attempt to smooth away
contradictions," he wrote. "The Russian tends to deal only in
extremes, and he is not particularly concerned to reconcile
them. To him, contradiction is a familiar thing. It is the
essence of Russia."
</p>
<p> Contradiction has also become the essence of its second
revolution, the radical crusade by Mikhail Gorbachev to create
nothing less than a new Soviet Union. In fits and starts, using
such hybrids as socialist markets and one-party pluralism, he
has directed one of the most transfixing spectacles of modern
times: an encrusted political and economic system being brought,
stumbling and blinking in amazement, into the light of a new
era. In the tradition of Peter the Great, who opened up Russia
to the West almost 300 years ago to rescue it from backwardness,
Gorbachev is trying to transform, neither slowly nor surely,
every aspect of his nation's political, economic and
psychological life.
</p>
<p> Gorbachev has been in power for four years. In some ways,
he was running for a second term in last Sunday's election of
a new Congress of People's Deputies, seeking a mandate for his
three-pronged pitchfork of perestroika (economic
restructuring), glasnost (openness) and demokratizatsiya
(democratization). Not since the Bolsheviks were trounced in the
Constituent Assembly races of November 1917 had citizens of the
Soviet Union been given the chance to vote in a real national
election. This time some highly visible keepers of the Bolshevik
faith fared poorly. But for Gorbachev the results could be, if
he uses them adroitly, the mandate he sought to move to the next
stages of reform.
</p>
<p> In a land hardly famous for political comebacks, Boris
Yeltsin, the brash populist who a year ago was ousted as Moscow
Communist Party boss and candidate member of the Politburo, has
become a symbol of the opportunities and obstacles that
Gorbachev now faces. Yeltsin's triumph, along with the defeat
of party hacks from Siberia to Lithuania, represented a rousing
endorsement of Gorbachev's vision of perestroika. But it also
represented a feisty revolt against the failure of his reforms
to improve the harsh realities of Soviet life.
</p>
<p> Gorbachev had already secured one of the seats in the new
legislature reserved for top party officials. Thus he did not
have to confront personally the deflating question that dogs
American candidates: Are you better off now than you were four
years ago?
</p>
<p> The answer again involves contradictions. Life is clearly
far better these days: the fear that was the most oppressive
aspect of daily existence has been replaced by a torrent of free
expression, while experiments with market principles show faint
signs of sparking economic success. Life is just as clearly no
better at all: the shelves in the shops are more barren than
when Gorbachev took office, the limited economic reforms serve
mainly to reveal how hopelessly ossified the economy is, and the
flirtation with freedom has frayed the seams binding the
empire's diverse nationalities.
</p>
<p> In fact, to pronounce perestroika either a success or a
failure at this stage is to misperceive its nature. At best, it
is the beginning of a protracted and massive undertaking that
could take a generation or more. "During the past 70 years, a
new man has been created who is obedient and easily frightened,"
says the poet Bulat Okudzhava, a veteran Soviet-reform advocate.
"What has been created over decades cannot be undone in a day."
Energizing an empire of 285 million people and turning it into
a modern economy ranks among the most daunting tasks of modern
times, as audacious as Deng Xiaoping's Four Modernizations or
Franklin Roosevelt's creation of a new social welfare state.
</p>
<p> Like Dr. Johnson's remark about dogs who walk upright and
women who preach, the amazing thing about perestroika is not
that the Soviets are doing it well but that they are doing it
at all. "We so quickly and lightly overlook the remarkable
existence of perestroika and focus on the obstacles," says
Robert Legvold, director of Columbia University's Averell
Harriman Institute, "that we underestimate the significance of
the fact that it has begun at all." Whatever happens, and
whatever course it finally takes, the Gorbachev revolution has
already become one of the greatest dramas and most momentous
events of the second half of the 20th century.
</p>
<p> Five of the six men who have led the Soviet Union have
clung to power until their deaths. But the one exception--Nikita
Khrushchev, the earthy reformer of a generation ago--stands as a
cautionary reminder of the perils of perestroika.
The combination of glasnost and demokratizatsiya runs the risk
of giving conservatives the chance to point to a breakdown in
social order. This is a major consideration in one of the most
order-obsessed regimes on earth. Gorbachev's situation, like the
fate of his reforms, will thus remain precarious.
</p>
<p> Gorbachev has been able to demote but not purge from the
Communist Party's ruling Politburo Yegor Ligachev, his
conservative thorn. Ligachev and his allies, who include former
KGB chief Victor Chebrikov, could become even more antagonistic
out of dismay at the fate of fellow party traditionalists in the
election. None is likely to try to pull off a coup, but it is
possible that they could force Gorbachev to water down the
reforms.
</p>
<p> Even if Gorbachev is reined in, or toppled, the seeds he
has sown in the Soviet mind and the changes he has already
wrought will leave an indelible mark. The reforms of Khrushchev
and Kosygin were squelched, but the ideas they planted blossomed
a quarter-century later in a new generation of leadership. As
Gorbachev told Henry Kissinger when he visited Moscow earlier
this year, "At any rate, things will never be the same again in
the Soviet Union." Notes Kissinger: "This would be a modest
result for so Herculean a task." Yes, but once again the
contradiction is also true: the fact that the Soviet Union has
been so deeply altered that it will never again be exactly the
same is of monumental historic significance.
</p>
<p> The Soviet people now know what it is like not to fear.
They have learned the joys (and, yes, the frustrations) of a
feisty press. They have had Pasternak returned to them and have
openly called for the publication of Solzhenitsyn. They have
tasted the fruits of private marketplaces and cooperative cafes,
discovered the potential (and, yes, the frustrations) of
private entrepreneurship; they have watched candidates debate
on television and be asked whether they believe in God. And they
have read articles brushing the dust off Trotsky, probing the
demonic mind of Stalin and introducing them to the ideas of Lech
Walesa.
</p>
<p> Most significant, perhaps, is the forthright admission by
the Soviets that they are trying to shed the burden of a
rigidly centralized economy based on Leninist-Stalinist
principles. The eulogies on the death of Communism may be
premature, but there are signs that a verdict is being reached
in the long twilight struggle between this century's two
dominant ideologies. While scrambling to find euphemisms for
such apostate phrases as "private property," the Soviets are
jettisoning many of their Communist tenets in favor of some that
are at the heart of democratic capitalism: contested elections,
pluralism, codified individual rights, market incentives and the
reward of private enterprise.
</p>
<p> The one thing that can be said with certainty about
perestroika is that it has exposed how difficult rebuilding the
Soviet economy will be. The obstacles are greater, the situation
more dire and the fixes more fundamental than even Gorbachev
suspected four years ago. "Frankly speaking, comrades, we have
underestimated the extent and gravity of the deformations," he
told a Party Conference last year. Nikolai Shmelev, one of the
country's radical economic gadflies, has put it more vividly:
"We are now like a seriously ill man who, after a long time in
bed, takes his first step with the greatest degree of difficulty
and finds to his horror that he has almost forgotten how to
walk."
</p>
<p> The overall Soviet economy remains a near shambles. The
budget deficit--caused in part by transfusions to anemic
factories and by subsidies for food and housing--is about 11%
of the GNP, by some estimates. The ruble, arbitrarily said to
be worth $1.60 but not freely convertible into dollars or other
Western currencies, brings as little as 10 cents on the black
market. But price controls have repressed the latent inflation,
and people have more paper money--about 300 billion rubles in
savings--than there are goods available for purchase.
</p>
<p> Translated to a personal level, this means that day-to-day
life in the Soviet Union is as difficult as ever. Not only are
big consumer items like refrigerators and washing machines in
short supply--the average wait to buy the cheapest Soviet car
is seven years--but staples of everyday life are also scarce.
Long lines snake into the street for such ordinary items as
sausage, rice, coffee and candy.
</p>
<p> Gorbachev's reforms are part of the problem. He is trying
to force factories to become financially profitable, so they
are gussying up products in order to price them higher than the
everyday models that are price-fixed by the bureaucracy. Moscow
consumers were deprived for months this winter of regular soap
(32 cents a bar) because enterprises wanted to produce only a
luxury soap that they could price at $1.60 a bar.
</p>
<p> This does not make perestroika popular. A middle-aged book
translator in Moscow says that votes for Yeltsin were votes
against the establishment and Gorbachev. But doesn't Gorbachev
represent change? "Who gives a damn about change when you can't
buy cheese and aspirin anymore? They've had their circus. Now
we want bread." Izvestia reports that when miners in southern
Russia lined up for hours to wait for their pay packets, they
began to jeer, "And this is perestroika?"
</p>
<p> But to see only empty shelves is to miss the remarkable
nature of the Soviet reforms. Gorbachev believes that the three
prongs of his program are inextricably linked. Demokratizatsiya
goes hand in glove with perestroika, he argues, because
individual initiative is impossible in a society where
decision-making is alienated from the people. And for either
prong to work, there must be open discussion of ideas and
criticism of the system's flaws. "It is only by combining
economic reform with political changes, demokratizatsiya and
glasnost that we can fulfill the tasks we have set for
ourselves," Gorbachev told a party plenum in October.
</p>
<p> On this linkage, Marx would be pleased with Gorbachev: the
dialectical process requires understanding the connections
between different social and economic forces. In theory, the
urge to proceed on all fronts seems logical.
</p>
<p> Does it make sense in practice? American politicians have
found it more effective to ignore connections and plunge forward
on just one or two initiatives at a time. That is the approach
Yeltsin advocates. "By heading off in every direction at once,
as we have been doing," he said in his interview with TIME in
February, "we have hardly made any progress at all as far as the
standard of living is concerned."
</p>
<p> But Gorbachev's approach is probably the only way to
rebuild a system so deeply corroded. The failed reforms of 1965,
which attempted to introduce price and profit incentives, showed
that tinkering with parts of the economy without a
comprehensive overhaul of attitudes was doomed. Linkage is
necessary because the economic and social problems all stem from
the same root: too much centralization. A system based on
bureaucratic commands has failed. Decentralization is necessary.
But this cannot occur unless people are allowed the freedom to
think for themselves.
</p>
<p> One of Gorbachev's goals in the election was to get people
engaged in his reforms. He did, with a vengeance. Despite 71
years without practice, Soviets plunged into the fray of open
democracy. "We intellectuals always saw ourselves as the symbol
of democracy but thought the people weren't ready for it," says
Andrei Voznesensky, a noted Soviet poet. "The joyful thing about
all this is that in many ways we have been proved wrong."
</p>
<p> The significance of the new Congress of People's Deputies
is not yet certain. The 1,500 candidates who were up for
election on March 26 will be joined by 750 selected by public
organizations ranging from the Communist Party to the Society
of Stamp Collectors. They will select 544 of their number for
a new Supreme Soviet. This new legislature, of which Gorbachev
is expected to be president, will jostle for authority with the
Communist Party's hierarchy, of which Gorbachev is General
Secretary. He may thus be able (if his footwork remains agile)
to use the new Supreme Soviet to outmaneuver the conservatives
in the Communist Party's apparatus and to use the party's
Politburo to keep a lid on the insurgents in the Supreme Soviet.
</p>
<p> Many elderly voters never mastered the principle that they
were supposed to walk into a booth, pull the curtain behind them
and secretly cross out the names of those they opposed. Instead,
they picked up their ballots and walked straight to the box, as
was the practice in past elections. Another change was that the
party did not try to drum up turnout. "What kind of election is
this?" a baffled older woman complained at a Moscow poll. "Where
is the music, and what happened to the buffet?"
</p>
<p> Yeltsin, 58, ran as Moscow's Huey Long, stoking populist
passions with his calls for an end to the party elite's special
privileges and his frontal attacks on Yegor Ligachev. "You're
wrong, Boris!" Ligachev had shouted during the emotional Party
Conference last year at which Yeltsin sought rehabilitation
after being kicked off the Politburo. YEGOR, YOU'RE WRONG! read
the buttons sported by Yeltsin's supporters as they marched
through Moscow shouting "Down with party bureaucrats!" during
the days leading up to the election. Yeltsin ended up with an
astounding 89% of the vote in the at-large Moscow district.
</p>
<p> One criticism of the election was that in 384 of the 1,500
districts, party hacks ran unopposed. Those who ran alone,
however, still had to collect 50% of the vote. The most
prominent victim: Yuri Solovyov, the Communist Party boss of the
Leningrad region and a nonvoting member of the Politburo. Though
Solovyov ran unopposed, almost two-thirds of the voters crossed
out his name, and he lost. The mayor of Kiev also ran unopposed
and lost. So did that city's Communist Party boss.
</p>
<p> Indeed, any notion that the election was totally controlled
by the Communist bureaucracy was dispelled by the startling list
of losers: the mayor of Moscow, the president and prime minister
in Lithuania, the party boss in Minsk, the first deputy premier
of Belorussia and the admiral of the Pacific fleet of the Soviet
navy. Across the nation, almost a third of the party's 129
regional leaders lost. Estonians even had the courage to vote
down the republic's KGB chief. The city party leader in
Leningrad, running against an unknown 28-year-old shipyard
engineer, received only 15% of the vote. In fact, the five top
Communists in the Leningrad power structure tumbled to defeat.
Valeri Terekhov, a member of Leningrad's Democratic Union, an
opposition group, noted, "Gorbachev opened a volcano, and I
don't think he realized the lava was so deep."
</p>
<p> Another cause of skepticism about the elections was the
bloc of 750 seats reserved for official and public
organizations. But even there, insurgency reigned. Leaders of
the Soviet Academy of Sciences produced a limp slate of 23
nominees for their 20 reserved seats, pointedly excluding
physicist Andrei Sakharov, the Nobel laureate and human-rights
activist. But the membership voted down 15 of them, which means
that the academy's leaders must come up with new candidates,
presumably including Sakharov this time. The Soviet Peace
Committee, a goodwill and propaganda organization, was allotted
five seats. Among those elected by the group was Patriarch
Pimen, head of the Russian Orthodox Church.
</p>
<p> Between gasps, however, some caution is in order. The
Soviet Union still has a one-party system. After broaching the
subject of whether other parties should be permitted, Yeltsin
was subjected to an official inquiry by the Central Committee,
which is still under way. Gorbachev, who says that pluralism can
be accommodated within the Communist Party, calls the idea of
having other parties "all rubbish."
</p>
<p> Yeltsin will quit his job in Moscow's construction ministry
and work to organize a bloc of like-minded members of the
Congress of People's Deputies. "They will create pressure and
strengthen their voice so it will be heard," he said after his
victory. They will also, he hopes, elect him to the Supreme
Soviet.
</p>
<p> In Russian the word for voting, golosovat, derives from the
Russian word golos, or voice. That also happens to be the root
of the word glasnost. Likewise, the election was an extension
of the openness and public airing spawned by Gorbachev's
glasnost crusade. Of the reform trinity, glasnost has wrought
the most tangible changes, especially for the Soviet
intellectual community, Gorbachev's most solid base of support.
Nowadays the only heresy is orthodoxy. Says economist Shmelev:
"Four years ago, people felt themselves living behind barbed
wire. Now we have a degree of freedom for intellectuals and for
ordinary people that would have been unimaginable before."
</p>
<p> But glasnost has sparked serious problems for Gorbachev,
none more threatening than the release of long-festering
resentments felt by various national and ethnic groups. The
world's last polyglot empire now faces renewed demands from the
Crimean Tatars about grievances that go back 45 years,
nationalist demonstrations in Moldavia against Russification,
secessionism along the Baltic coast and sectarian violence
between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
</p>
<p> The explosion of ethnic violence in Azerbaijan a year ago
caught Gorbachev without a workable nationalities policy. The
Armenians are enraged by what they claim are flagrant cases of
ethnic abuse against their compatriots living in Azerbaijan.
Gorbachev's prestige plummeted in Armenia when he gave a
finger-wagging lecture to Armenian intellectuals who had come
to present their case in Moscow last summer and when he ended
his snap tour of the Armenian earthquake zone last December with
another outburst against nationalists.
</p>
<p> The nationalities crisis is also acute in Estonia, Latvia
and Lithuania, the relatively prosperous Baltic States that
Stalin seized in 1940. Gorbachev initially regarded the
nationalist sentiments in the region as a force that he could
harness on behalf of perestroika. But he underestimated the
resentment. In Estonia last November, the local legislature
declared the republic "sovereign," a pronouncement Moscow
refused to accept. Residents in Estonia are so fed up with
Russians flooding in to clean out their better-stocked stores
that they now require customers to produce a passport; only
Estonians are allowed to buy appliances, clothing or footwear.
The Baltics produced some painful surprises for the party as
nationalist candidates notched victories over pro-Moscow rivals.
</p>
<p> Another potential problem is the festering unrest in the
fertile heart of the Soviet Union, the Ukraine. Gorbachev
visited the region in February and lashed out against the
disastrous consequences of further nationalist stirrings there,
displaying iron teeth rather than the usual smile.
</p>
<p> Of all Gorbachev's challenges, his most critical is getting
perestroika to produce some tangible economic improvements. At
the core of this effort is the Law on State Enterprise, passed
almost two years ago, which is designed to lift the yoke of
central planning off the back of industry. In theory, factories
will no longer have to fulfill Moscow-dictated quotas by
churning out products with little regard for cost, efficiency
or quality. Instead, factories are supposed to become
"self-financing." They will contract with suppliers for
materials, be responsible for selling what they produce and be
allowed to share in the profit if revenue exceeds costs.
</p>
<p> In reality, however, the quotas have been supplanted by
"state orders" placed by Moscow's ministries for hefty portions
of the output of most factories. The nation's entrenched
bureaucrats see change as threatening, and their first priority
is to preserve their jobs by clinging to their authority to
meddle. That suits most managers just fine, because it means
they neither have to hustle sales nor worry about scaring up the
necessary raw materials. "A form of perverse social contract
exists between the bureaucracy and those people who do not want
to work very hard," says Shmelev.
</p>
<p> An equally important pillar of perestroika is the
encouragement of private agriculture. Gorbachev has long
promoted "contract" farming, in which small groups or families
enter into an agreement to handle a certain portion of a
collective farm's crops, land or livestock. The latest
innovation, passed by the Central Committee last month, goes
much further: it allows families to take leases of 50 years or
more on pieces of land, keep the profit on what they raise and
even pass the leasing rights on to their children.
Administration of this program, though, will be under the
control of the collective farms.
</p>
<p> This reintroduction of what Gorbachev delicately referred
to as "individual property" could cause the most sweeping
overhaul in Soviet agriculture since Stalin began to
collectivize the farms in 1929, a process that resulted in more
than 10 million deaths and wiped out the kulaks, or landed
farmers, as a class. Since then the land has been unable to feed
its people; the U.S.S.R. spends $105 billion, roughly 15% of its
budget, subsidizing food, and it imported 36 million tons of
grain last year. One Soviet collective farmer feeds only seven
to nine people, in contrast to a Dutch farmer, who can feed at
least 112.
</p>
<p> To breed a new class of entrepreneurs, Gorbachev has
allowed individuals to start cooperatives and share the profits.
At first the program was limited mainly to high-visibility
services such as taxis and cafes. Now more than 2 million people
are employed in co-ops and private businesses. Privately
operated pay toilets are set up all over Moscow. But most co-ops
are still harassed by reform-resistant bureaucrats and have
trouble securing permits and supplies.
</p>
<p> Reaching beyond the country's borders, Gorbachev has
attempted to start joint ventures with foreign investors. The
Soviets have proved flexible: the original plan, which insisted
on majority Soviet ownership, has been revised to accommodate
the demands of Western companies. Last Thursday at a Kremlin
ceremony, executives of a consortium of six U.S. firms--including
Chevron, Eastman Kodak and Johnson & Johnson--signed
an agreement for as many as 25 joint ventures involving about
$10 billion over the next 20 years. Although the agreement
specified ways that profits could be taken out of the Soviet
Union in hard currency and not just held in worthless rubles,
joint ventures still face enormous difficulties. Ford Motor Co.
pulled out of the consortium because, a spokesman said, it was
unable to persuade "the Soviets to adopt new and innovative
financial arrangements."
</p>
<p> Gorbachev's economic reforms, while radical, are
nonetheless carefully circumscribed. He is not marching headlong
to capitalism but is attempting to reinvent Marxism by creating
socialist markets, socialist competition and cooperative
ventures. Private ownership of the means of production (land,
factories) is still prohibited. Individuals cannot hire workers
with a view to profiting from their labor but rather must form
cooperative arrangements. There is a noncompetitive banking
system, and no stock market for financing private ventures. Most
important of all, there is no rational price system: thousands
of prices are still set by state fiat rather than supply and
demand, which means that supply never seems to equal demand.
</p>
<p> Despite what the election indicated, there is significant
resistance to Gorbachev's reforms. While managers and workers
realize that the present system has its flaws, they are not
eager to take a leap into the unknown. Many are satisfied with
a social contract in which, as Soviets cynically joke, "they
pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work." The probability,
nevertheless, is that Gorbachev will become more, not less,
impatient. "Shortages exist because we are moving too slowly,
halting and stepping off the road too often," says Abel
Aganbegyan, an economist who helped shape Gorbachev's ideas.
</p>
<p> The next stage of perestroika will probably be even harder
than the latest. For market incentives to work, prices will have
to be decontrolled--a frightening prospect given the pent-up
inflationary pressures. Rents and the prices of meat, bread and
milk have been kept at the same level for decades; if
decontrolled, they would be likely to rocket. Gorbachev
understands the challenge. "Socialist markets cannot be formed
without price reform," he told a party meeting in February. But
having reached that daunting precipice, he blinked. Rents and
basic food prices, he promised, will not be raised for at least
two years. Until there are price reform and quality products to
market, the ruble cannot become a convertible currency, which
is necessary if Gorbachev is to attract more foreign investment
and bring his country into international financial
organizations.
</p>
<p> To buy time for his reforms, Gorbachev has forced a
significant shift of resources away from the military. He has
signed a decree cutting Soviet armed forces by 500,000 men
within the next two years, helping save 14% of the total
military budget and living up to the promise he made in his U.N.
speech last December. These cuts have been accompanied by
significant changes in doctrine. Conventional forces are being
reconfigured to become more defensive in deployment. In
addition, the Soviets now speak of maintaining a "reasonable
sufficiency" in their nuclear and conventional forces rather
than attempting to match or surpass the might of the West in
every category. As a Soviet arms-control official asked
recently, "What do we need a huge tank park in Eastern Europe
for?"
</p>
<p> The swords-into-plowshares effort has produced some quirky
situations. For example, the Ministry for Medium-Machine
Building, which is responsible for building nuclear weapons, has
been given the job of modernizing the dairy industry. Prime
Minister Nikolai Ryzhkov disclosed last month that the Moscow
Aviation Factory will soon produce pasta.
</p>
<p> Gorbachev also continues to advocate "new thinking" in
foreign policy, which has been reflected in tangible reductions
of Soviet commitments abroad. Foreign Minister Eduard
Shevardnadze is even plunging into the thicket of creating a
Soviet version of the War Powers Act: he has announced that the
new Supreme Soviet should have the right to debate any foreign
political or military commitments.
</p>
<p> The commanding presence that Gorbachev has been able to
exert on the world stage has helped shore up his power at home.
This week he is again on the road. In his visit with Cuba's
Fidel Castro, who is no fan of perestroika or glasnost, the
Soviet leader will have a chance to show whether his rhetoric
about new thinking translates into taking concrete steps toward
easing tensions in Central America. Afterward, he plans to go
to London to see if Margaret Thatcher still believes, as she
once said of Gorbachev, that "we can do business together."
</p>
<p> When Gorbachev proposed his plans for perestroika, the
first question was, Is he serious? He was. Then the question
was, Can he succeed? That one is still open. Nowadays, as
popular impatience grows, another question comes up with
increasing frequency, Are his reforms permanent, or could they
be reversed if he was shunted aside?
</p>
<p> When a group of intellectuals and artists were sitting
around Moscow debating this question, one of them asked what it
would take for the hard-liners to reverse glasnost. "All they'd
have to do is fire about six editors," someone replied. "I think
one would do it," said another. But even though such a clampdown
could occur, it could not erase the ideas or the taste for open
discussion that has been liberated. Says Sergei Zalygin, editor
of the crusading literary monthly Novy Mir: "How it will end we
do not know, but there is no turning back now."
</p>
<p> Demokratizatsiya might be easier to dampen. Conservatives
simply could ensure that the popularly elected Supreme Soviet
becomes mainly a ceremonial body, with real authority remaining
with the Politburo. Even so, the elections of March 1989 are a
watershed. Never again will the power of the party seem quite
so absolute and unassailable. Never again will it be quite so
easy to herd Soviet citizens to the polls to cast ballots with
only one name.
</p>
<p> As for perestroika, Gorbachev has made into a mantra the
phrase "There is no alternative." Even Ligachev and the
conservatives, wary as they are about the mayhem being done to
Marxism, agree that something must be done. As Gorbachev well
knows, one of the safeguards of perestroika is its links to
glasnost: now that the economy's inherent flaws have been aired,
it is impossible to retreat and pretend once again not to see
them. "The notion that Ligachev or anyone else can bring
perestroika to a halt now simply does not square with reality,"
says Soviet economist Gavril Popov. "Empty store shelves and
housing problems have made the process difficult, but something
absolutely vital has taken place in Russian terms: a change in
our way of thinking."
</p>
<p> This does not mean that Gorbachev will prevail or even
endure. Perestroika has committed one of the most dangerous sins
in politics: it has raised expectations more than living
standards. Although the reforms Gorbachev has wrought can never
be completely reversed, they could be suppressed by a retrograde
regime. The result would be a surly Soviet Union that could
threaten the world with its bulk and brawn while it seethed
about the sclerotic state of its Third World economy and its
inability to escape the tentacles of an ideology that does not
satisfy the basic needs of 285 million people.
</p>
<p> The alternative is not that perestroika might suddenly be
pronounced a success--even the irrepressible Boris Yeltsin
should avoid holding his breath--but that the reforms will
continue. For both the Soviets and those destined to coexist
with them, that is the important thing. Each new manifestation
of democracy, each new opportunity for individual enterprise,
each new opening for free thought and expression helps ease the
repressive relationship between the Soviet state and its
population. That, in turn, should make the new U.S.S.R. a far
less threatening world citizen. Last week's election was another
act in a lengthy drama that has already, in only four fitful
years, indelibly transformed the face of the Soviet Union--and
its soul.
</p>
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